NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
50%43%
SPARTA · 6 mapsedge SPARTA +7%Lavked · 10 maps
MirageLavked pick
44%67%
SPARTA · 5 mapsedge Lavked +23%Lavked · 11 maps
Nukepossible decider
57%57%
SPARTA · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Lavked · 10 maps
InfernoLavked ban
33%36%
SPARTA · 2 mapsnearly even -3%Lavked · 7 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
33%70%
SPARTA · 2 mapsedge Lavked +37%Lavked · 6 maps
OverpassLavked ban
57%60%
SPARTA · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Lavked · 1 map
AnubisSPARTA ban
50%40%
SPARTA · 0 mapsedge SPARTA +10%Lavked · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
2. BanLavked remove Overpass
3. PickSPARTA take Dust2
4. PickLavked take Mirage
5. BanLavked remove Inferno
6. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (57% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
SPARTA 16%Lavked 84%
The model gave 84% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Infernoprediction missed16:12
SPARTA 50%Lavked 50%
The model gave 50% on Lavked — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
SPARTA 29%Lavked 71%
The model gave 71% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 62%
Series resultLavked 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3