NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#108 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisLavked ban
50%40%
SPARTA · 0 mapsedge SPARTA +10%Lavked · 1 map
Dust2SPARTA pick
50%40%
SPARTA · 0 mapsedge SPARTA +10%Lavked · 1 map
MirageSPARTA ban
50%60%
SPARTA · 0 mapsedge Lavked +10%Lavked · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Mirage
2. BanLavked remove Anubis
3. PickSPARTA take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
SPARTA 47%Lavked 53%
The model gave 53% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Infernoprediction correct16:12
SPARTA 53%Lavked 47%
The model gave 53% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
SPARTA 40%Lavked 60%
The model gave 60% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteSPARTA · 52%
Series resultLavked 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3