Parken Challenger Championship Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#100 in the world · win 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
A Great Chaosloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS pick
60%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapnearly even +0%A Great Chaos · 1 map
Dust2A Great Chaos pick
60%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapnearly even +0%A Great Chaos · 1 map
MirageBASEMENT BOYS ban
50%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 0 mapsedge A Great Chaos +10%A Great Chaos · 1 map
NukeA Great Chaos ban
50%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 0 mapsedge A Great Chaos +10%A Great Chaos · 1 map
OverpassA Great Chaos ban
50%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 0 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%A Great Chaos · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Mirage
2. BanA Great Chaos remove Overpass
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Anubis
4. PickA Great Chaos take Dust2
5. BanA Great Chaos remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:4
BASEMENT BOYS 37%A Great Chaos 63%
The model gave 63% on A Great Chaos — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Nukeprediction missed13:6
BASEMENT BOYS 43%A Great Chaos 57%
The model gave 57% on A Great Chaos — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteA Great Chaos · 53%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2