Parken Challenger Championship Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
A Great Chaos#187 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientA Great Chaos ban
57%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 3 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +17%A Great Chaos · 1 map
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS pick
50%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 2 mapsedge A Great Chaos +10%A Great Chaos · 1 map
MirageA Great Chaos pick
60%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%A Great Chaos · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 2 mapsedge A Great Chaos +10%A Great Chaos · 1 map
Dust2BASEMENT BOYS ban
60%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapnearly even +0%A Great Chaos · 1 map
InfernoA Great Chaos ban
33%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 2 mapsedge A Great Chaos +17%A Great Chaos · 0 maps
OverpassBASEMENT BOYS ban
50%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 0 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%A Great Chaos · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Overpass
2. BanA Great Chaos remove Ancient
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Anubis
4. PickA Great Chaos take Mirage
5. BanA Great Chaos remove Inferno
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
BASEMENT BOYS 57%A Great Chaos 43%
The model gave 57% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Nukeprediction missed13:6
BASEMENT BOYS 43%A Great Chaos 57%
The model gave 57% on A Great Chaos — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 74%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2