BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · win 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ASTRAL#97 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientASTRAL pick
43%56%
CYBERSHOKE · 3 mapsedge ASTRAL +13%ASTRAL · 5 maps
MirageASTRAL ban
50%71%
CYBERSHOKE · 4 mapsedge ASTRAL +21%ASTRAL · 3 maps
Dust2CYBERSHOKE pick
57%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 3 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +7%ASTRAL · 2 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
50%25%
CYBERSHOKE · 0 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +25%ASTRAL · 4 maps
NukeCYBERSHOKE ban
50%57%
CYBERSHOKE · 0 mapsedge ASTRAL +7%ASTRAL · 3 maps
OverpassCYBERSHOKE ban
40%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 1 mapedge ASTRAL +10%ASTRAL · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Overpass
2. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
3. PickCYBERSHOKE take Dust2
4. PickASTRAL take Ancient
5. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
6. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
CYBERSHOKE 26%ASTRAL 74%
The model gave 74% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
CYBERSHOKE 60%ASTRAL 40%
The model gave 60% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
CYBERSHOKE 38%ASTRAL 62%
The model gave 63% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE · 52%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3