BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
CYBERSHOKE#86 in the world · win 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ASTRAL#90 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientASTRAL ban
50%40%
CYBERSHOKE · 0 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +10%ASTRAL · 1 map
InfernoCYBERSHOKE ban
50%40%
CYBERSHOKE · 0 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +10%ASTRAL · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Inferno
2. BanASTRAL remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
CYBERSHOKE 47%ASTRAL 53%
The model gave 53% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
CYBERSHOKE 53%ASTRAL 47%
The model gave 53% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
CYBERSHOKE 60%ASTRAL 40%
The model gave 60% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE · 59%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3