ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMarsborne pick
67%50%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +17%Elusive · 0 maps
MirageElusive ban
64%50%
Marsborne · 7 mapsedge Marsborne +14%Elusive · 0 maps
InfernoElusive ban
70%50%
Marsborne · 6 mapsedge Marsborne +20%Elusive · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
63%50%
Marsborne · 4 mapsedge Marsborne +13%Elusive · 0 maps
OverpassMarsborne ban
50%50%
Marsborne · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Elusive · 0 maps
Dust2Marsborne ban
50%50%
Marsborne · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Elusive · 0 maps
CacheElusive pick
40%50%
Marsborne · 1 mapedge Elusive +10%Elusive · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
2. BanElusive remove Inferno
3. PickMarsborne take Ancient
4. PickElusive take Cache
5. BanElusive remove Mirage
6. BanMarsborne remove Overpass
DeciderAnubis (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
Marsborne 64%Elusive 36%
The model gave 64% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
Marsborne 72%Elusive 28%
The model gave 72% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 69%
Series resultMarsborne 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2