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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Just Swing#158 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Alter Ego#120 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Alter Ego pick
43%64%
Just Swing · 3 mapsedge Alter Ego +21%Alter Ego · 7 maps
Ancientpossible decider
43%67%
Just Swing · 3 mapsedge Alter Ego +24%Alter Ego · 5 maps
InfernoAlter Ego ban
67%57%
Just Swing · 2 mapsedge Just Swing +10%Alter Ego · 3 maps
CacheJust Swing pick
67%67%
Just Swing · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Alter Ego · 2 maps
NukeAlter Ego ban
67%50%
Just Swing · 2 mapsedge Just Swing +17%Alter Ego · 2 maps
MirageJust Swing ban
50%57%
Just Swing · 0 mapsedge Alter Ego +7%Alter Ego · 3 maps
AnubisJust Swing ban
50%40%
Just Swing · 0 mapsedge Just Swing +10%Alter Ego · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Swing remove Mirage
2. BanAlter Ego remove Nuke
3. PickJust Swing take Cache
4. PickAlter Ego take Dust2
5. BanAlter Ego remove Inferno
6. BanJust Swing remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (43% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed9:13
Just Swing 53%Alter Ego 47%
The model gave 53% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Just Swing 28%Alter Ego 72%
The model gave 72% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
Just Swing 27%Alter Ego 73%
The model gave 73% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlter Ego · 64%
Series resultJust Swing 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3