NODWIN Clutch Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#149 in the world · win 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
RBLS#93 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
75%60%
Walczaki · 8 mapsedge Walczaki +15%RBLS · 6 maps
AncientRBLS ban
67%40%
Walczaki · 5 mapsedge Walczaki +27%RBLS · 1 map
Anubispossible decider
63%40%
Walczaki · 4 mapsedge Walczaki +23%RBLS · 1 map
Dust2Walczaki ban
60%57%
Walczaki · 1 mapnearly even +3%RBLS · 3 maps
InfernoRBLS pick
67%67%
Walczaki · 2 mapsnearly even +0%RBLS · 2 maps
DefaultWalczaki ban
57%50%
Walczaki · 3 mapsedge Walczaki +7%RBLS · 0 maps
MirageRBLS ban
57%50%
Walczaki · 3 mapsedge Walczaki +7%RBLS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
2. BanRBLS remove Mirage
3. PickWalczaki take Nuke
4. PickRBLS take Inferno
5. BanRBLS remove Ancient
6. BanWalczaki remove Default
DeciderAnubis (63% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct9:13
Walczaki 47%RBLS 53%
The model gave 53% on RBLS — the map was taken by RBLS.
Anubisprediction correct13:2
Walczaki 74%RBLS 26%
The model gave 74% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Nukeprediction correct13:3
Walczaki 67%RBLS 33%
The model gave 67% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 60%
Series resultWalczaki 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3