NODWIN Clutch Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#58 in the world · win 2:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
RBLS#91 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageRBLS ban
60%50%
Walczaki · 1 mapedge Walczaki +10%RBLS · 0 maps
NukeWalczaki ban
60%50%
Walczaki · 1 mapedge Walczaki +10%RBLS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Nuke
2. BanRBLS remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct9:13
Walczaki 47%RBLS 53%
The model gave 53% on RBLS — the map was taken by RBLS.
Anubisprediction correct13:2
Walczaki 53%RBLS 47%
The model gave 53% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Nukeprediction correct13:3
Walczaki 60%RBLS 40%
The model gave 60% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 62%
Series resultWalczaki 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3