Stake Ranked Episode 4 Open Qualifier · BO3
pre-match prediction
ASTRAL#70 in the worldseries probability
59%41%
model: map winrate + form + head-to-head
InsidersBefore the match the model relies on historical data: each team's winrate on every map in the pool over 3 months, current form and head-to-head. Once the veto happens, the prediction is recalculated for the real map pool.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientASTRAL pick
62%50%
ASTRAL · 9 mapsedge ASTRAL +12%Insiders · 0 maps
AnubisASTRAL ban
45%50%
ASTRAL · 7 mapsedge Insiders +5%Insiders · 0 maps
MirageASTRAL ban
44%40%
ASTRAL · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Insiders · 1 map
NukeInsiders ban
50%50%
ASTRAL · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Insiders · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
67%50%
ASTRAL · 5 mapsedge ASTRAL +17%Insiders · 0 maps
InfernoInsiders ban
50%50%
ASTRAL · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Insiders · 0 maps
CacheInsiders pick
40%50%
ASTRAL · 1 mapedge Insiders +10%Insiders · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
2. BanInsiders remove Nuke
3. PickASTRAL take Ancient
4. PickInsiders take Cache
5. BanInsiders remove Inferno
6. BanASTRAL remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (67% / 50%)