Stake Ranked Episode 4 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
ASTRAL#97 in the world · win 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Insidersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientASTRAL pick
62%50%
ASTRAL · 9 mapsedge ASTRAL +12%Insiders · 0 maps
AnubisASTRAL ban
45%50%
ASTRAL · 7 mapsedge Insiders +5%Insiders · 0 maps
MirageASTRAL ban
44%40%
ASTRAL · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Insiders · 1 map
NukeInsiders ban
50%50%
ASTRAL · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Insiders · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
67%50%
ASTRAL · 5 mapsedge ASTRAL +17%Insiders · 0 maps
InfernoInsiders ban
50%50%
ASTRAL · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Insiders · 0 maps
CacheInsiders pick
40%50%
ASTRAL · 1 mapedge Insiders +10%Insiders · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
2. BanInsiders remove Nuke
3. PickASTRAL take Ancient
4. PickInsiders take Cache
5. BanInsiders remove Inferno
6. BanASTRAL remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
ASTRAL 59%Insiders 41%
The model gave 59% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
ASTRAL 53%Insiders 47%
The model gave 53% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 76%
Series resultASTRAL 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2