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NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#82 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
60%30%
Marsborne · 11 mapsedge Marsborne +30%Iowa Stormboar · 6 maps
Ancientpossible decider
63%75%
Marsborne · 12 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +12%Iowa Stormboar · 4 maps
MirageMarsborne ban
70%54%
Marsborne · 6 mapsedge Marsborne +16%Iowa Stormboar · 9 maps
Dust2Iowa Stormboar ban
58%50%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +8%Iowa Stormboar · 6 maps
NukeIowa Stormboar pick
56%50%
Marsborne · 5 mapsedge Marsborne +6%Iowa Stormboar · 8 maps
AnubisMarsborne pick
67%50%
Marsborne · 5 mapsedge Marsborne +17%Iowa Stormboar · 2 maps
CacheMarsborne ban
40%50%
Marsborne · 1 mapedge Iowa Stormboar +10%Iowa Stormboar · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Cache
2. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
3. PickMarsborne take Anubis
4. PickIowa Stormboar take Nuke
5. BanIowa Stormboar remove Dust2
6. BanMarsborne remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (63% / 75%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
Marsborne 64%Iowa Stormboar 36%
The model gave 64% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
Marsborne 39%Iowa Stormboar 61%
The model gave 61% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 78%
Series resultIowa Stormboar 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2