ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alter Ego#120 in the world · win 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nas#189 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNas pick
63%50%
Alter Ego · 4 mapsedge Alter Ego +13%Nas · 4 maps
Dust2Alter Ego pick
67%50%
Alter Ego · 5 mapsedge Alter Ego +17%Nas · 2 maps
NukeAlter Ego ban
50%43%
Alter Ego · 2 mapsedge Alter Ego +7%Nas · 3 maps
InfernoNas ban
57%50%
Alter Ego · 3 mapsedge Alter Ego +7%Nas · 0 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%60%
Alter Ego · 2 mapsedge Nas +10%Nas · 1 map
AnubisNas ban
40%50%
Alter Ego · 1 mapedge Nas +10%Nas · 0 maps
CacheAlter Ego ban
60%50%
Alter Ego · 1 mapedge Alter Ego +10%Nas · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlter Ego remove Cache
2. BanNas remove Inferno
3. PickAlter Ego take Dust2
4. PickNas take Ancient
5. BanNas remove Anubis
6. BanAlter Ego remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
Alter Ego 37%Nas 63%
The model gave 63% on Nas — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Dust2prediction correct13:3
Alter Ego 69%Nas 31%
The model gave 69% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlter Ego · 59%
Series resultAlter Ego 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2