ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NuTorious#202 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientElusive ban
33%38%
Elusive · 2 mapsedge NuTorious +5%NuTorious · 4 maps
InfernoNuTorious pick
40%57%
Elusive · 1 mapedge NuTorious +17%NuTorious · 3 maps
MirageNuTorious ban
60%57%
Elusive · 1 mapnearly even +3%NuTorious · 3 maps
NukeElusive pick
60%40%
Elusive · 1 mapedge Elusive +20%NuTorious · 1 map
AnubisElusive ban
50%40%
Elusive · 0 mapsedge Elusive +10%NuTorious · 1 map
CacheNuTorious ban
50%40%
Elusive · 0 mapsedge Elusive +10%NuTorious · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanElusive remove Anubis
2. BanNuTorious remove Cache
3. PickElusive take Nuke
4. PickNuTorious take Inferno
5. BanNuTorious remove Mirage
6. BanElusive remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
Elusive 48%NuTorious 52%
The model gave 52% on NuTorious — the map was taken by Elusive.
Infernoprediction missed13:3
Elusive 31%NuTorious 69%
The model gave 69% on NuTorious — the map was taken by Elusive.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuTorious · 59%
Series resultElusive 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2