ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
EMPIRE#176 in the world · win 2:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2EMPIRE pick
50%33%
EMPIRE · 2 mapsedge EMPIRE +17%New Legends · 2 maps
AncientNew Legends ban
50%50%
EMPIRE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%New Legends · 2 maps
InfernoNew Legends pick
33%50%
EMPIRE · 2 mapsedge New Legends +17%New Legends · 0 maps
MirageEMPIRE ban
50%60%
EMPIRE · 0 mapsedge New Legends +10%New Legends · 1 map
NukeNew Legends ban
60%50%
EMPIRE · 1 mapedge EMPIRE +10%New Legends · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEMPIRE remove Mirage
2. BanNew Legends remove Nuke
3. PickEMPIRE take Dust2
4. PickNew Legends take Inferno
5. BanNew Legends remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
EMPIRE 47%New Legends 53%
The model gave 53% on New Legends — the map was taken by EMPIRE.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
EMPIRE 63%New Legends 37%
The model gave 63% on EMPIRE — the map was taken by New Legends.
Infernoprediction missed13:8
EMPIRE 33%New Legends 67%
The model gave 67% on New Legends — the map was taken by EMPIRE.
Model check result
Model favoriteEMPIRE · 65%
Series resultEMPIRE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3