BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · win 2:1series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Rune Eaters#114 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
63%57%
Eternal Fire · 4 mapsedge Eternal Fire +6%Rune Eaters · 3 maps
Dust2Eternal Fire pick
63%40%
Eternal Fire · 4 mapsedge Eternal Fire +23%Rune Eaters · 1 map
MirageRune Eaters pick
33%29%
Eternal Fire · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Rune Eaters · 3 maps
DefaultEternal Fire ban
60%60%
Eternal Fire · 1 mapnearly even +0%Rune Eaters · 1 map
InfernoEternal Fire ban
50%50%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Rune Eaters · 2 maps
AnubisRune Eaters ban
60%50%
Eternal Fire · 1 mapedge Eternal Fire +10%Rune Eaters · 0 maps
NukeRune Eaters ban
50%40%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +10%Rune Eaters · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEternal Fire remove Inferno
2. BanRune Eaters remove Nuke
3. PickEternal Fire take Dust2
4. PickRune Eaters take Mirage
5. BanRune Eaters remove Anubis
6. BanEternal Fire remove Default
DeciderAncient (63% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
Eternal Fire 69%Rune Eaters 31%
The model gave 69% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
Eternal Fire 58%Rune Eaters 42%
The model gave 58% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Eternal Fire 56%Rune Eaters 44%
The model gave 56% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternal Fire · 74%
Series resultEternal Fire 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3