BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternal Fire#74 in the world · win 2:1series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Rune Eaters#88 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEternal Fire ban
50%67%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsedge Rune Eaters +17%Rune Eaters · 2 maps
InfernoRune Eaters ban
50%50%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Rune Eaters · 2 maps
DefaultRune Eaters pick
50%60%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsedge Rune Eaters +10%Rune Eaters · 1 map
Dust2Eternal Fire ban
50%40%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +10%Rune Eaters · 1 map
MirageEternal Fire pick
50%40%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +10%Rune Eaters · 1 map
OverpassRune Eaters ban
50%40%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +10%Rune Eaters · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEternal Fire remove Ancient
2. BanRune Eaters remove Overpass
3. PickEternal Fire take Mirage
4. PickRune Eaters take Default
5. BanRune Eaters remove Inferno
6. BanEternal Fire remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
Eternal Fire 57%Rune Eaters 43%
The model gave 57% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
Eternal Fire 36%Rune Eaters 64%
The model gave 64% on Rune Eaters — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Eternal Fire 60%Rune Eaters 40%
The model gave 60% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternal Fire · 74%
Series resultEternal Fire 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3