Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC#25 in the world · win 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Johnny Speeds#81 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientHEROIC ban
61%50%
HEROIC · 14 mapsedge HEROIC +11%Johnny Speeds · 4 maps
Dust2Johnny Speeds pick
67%50%
HEROIC · 14 mapsedge HEROIC +17%Johnny Speeds · 4 maps
InfernoHEROIC pick
67%70%
HEROIC · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Johnny Speeds · 6 maps
MirageJohnny Speeds ban
64%33%
HEROIC · 10 mapsedge HEROIC +31%Johnny Speeds · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
62%50%
HEROIC · 9 mapsedge HEROIC +12%Johnny Speeds · 2 maps
CacheJohnny Speeds ban
50%50%
HEROIC · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Johnny Speeds · 0 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
50%57%
HEROIC · 0 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +7%Johnny Speeds · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
2. BanJohnny Speeds remove Mirage
3. PickHEROIC take Inferno
4. PickJohnny Speeds take Dust2
5. BanJohnny Speeds remove Cache
6. BanHEROIC remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (62% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:2
HEROIC 47%Johnny Speeds 53%
The model gave 53% on Johnny Speeds — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
HEROIC 69%Johnny Speeds 31%
The model gave 69% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 63%
Series resultHEROIC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2