Stake Pulse Beat III · BO3
live · recalculated in real time
HOTU#41 in the worldseries probability now
82%18%
was 49% pre-match
Astralis#15 in the worldIn live mode the model factors in the current map and round score, team winrate on the maps being played and form. The probability is recalculated as the match unfolds.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cachepossible decider
61%76%
HOTU · 24 mapsedge Astralis +15%Astralis · 13 maps
AncientAstralis pick
58%68%
HOTU · 15 mapsedge Astralis +10%Astralis · 18 maps
Dust2HOTU pick
65%30%
HOTU · 22 mapsedge HOTU +35%Astralis · 6 maps
NukeAstralis ban
63%44%
HOTU · 12 mapsedge HOTU +19%Astralis · 12 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
59%33%
HOTU · 18 mapsedge HOTU +26%Astralis · 2 maps
MirageHOTU ban
63%55%
HOTU · 12 mapsedge HOTU +8%Astralis · 7 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
40%38%
HOTU · 1 mapnearly even +2%Astralis · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. BanAstralis remove Anubis
3. PickHOTU take Dust2
4. PickAstralis take Ancient
5. BanAstralis remove Nuke
6. BanHOTU remove Mirage
DeciderCache (61% / 76%)
Probability by map
For each map in the series — win chance factoring in the round score and historical map winrate over 3 months. Played maps are locked, the current one is recalculated by the score.
Dust2finished · HOTU pick13:6
HOTU won — 100%
Nukenot played · decider— : —
HOTU 68%Astralis 32%
Historical winrate over 3 months: HOTU 63% (12 maps) vs 44% (12 maps) for Astralis.