Stake Pulse Beat III · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Astralis#15 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cachepossible decider
61%76%
HOTU · 24 mapsedge Astralis +15%Astralis · 13 maps
AncientAstralis pick
58%68%
HOTU · 15 mapsedge Astralis +10%Astralis · 18 maps
Dust2HOTU pick
65%30%
HOTU · 22 mapsedge HOTU +35%Astralis · 6 maps
NukeAstralis ban
63%44%
HOTU · 12 mapsedge HOTU +19%Astralis · 12 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
59%33%
HOTU · 18 mapsedge HOTU +26%Astralis · 2 maps
MirageHOTU ban
63%55%
HOTU · 12 mapsedge HOTU +8%Astralis · 7 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
40%38%
HOTU · 1 mapnearly even +2%Astralis · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. BanAstralis remove Anubis
3. PickHOTU take Dust2
4. PickAstralis take Ancient
5. BanAstralis remove Nuke
6. BanHOTU remove Mirage
DeciderCache (61% / 76%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
HOTU 83%Astralis 17%
The model gave 83% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Ancientprediction correct14:16
HOTU 36%Astralis 64%
The model gave 64% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Nukeprediction missed2:13
HOTU 68%Astralis 32%
The model gave 68% on HOTU — the map was taken by Astralis.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 51%
Series resultAstralis 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3