BC Game Masters Championship Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Inner Circle#28 in the world · loss 13:16series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 13:16
Acend#125 in the world · win 16:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientInner Circle ban
50%50%
Inner Circle · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Acend · 4 maps
MirageInner Circle ban
50%63%
Inner Circle · 0 mapsedge Acend +13%Acend · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%60%
Inner Circle · 1 mapnearly even +0%Acend · 1 map
Dust2Acend ban
50%40%
Inner Circle · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle +10%Acend · 1 map
InfernoInner Circle ban
50%60%
Inner Circle · 0 mapsedge Acend +10%Acend · 1 map
OverpassAcend ban
50%40%
Inner Circle · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle +10%Acend · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle remove Mirage
2. BanAcend remove Dust2
3. BanInner Circle remove Inferno
4. BanAcend remove Overpass
5. BanInner Circle remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:16
Inner Circle 38%Acend 62%
The model gave 63% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 60%
Series resultAcend 13:16
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1