Hero Esports Asian Champions League 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kaleido#191 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#126 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
40%50%
Kaleido · 1 mapedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +10%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 maps
Dust2THUNDER dOWNUNDER pick
40%50%
Kaleido · 1 mapedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +10%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 maps
InfernoKaleido pick
50%60%
Kaleido · 0 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +10%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 map
NukeKaleido ban
50%60%
Kaleido · 0 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +10%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKaleido remove Nuke
2. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Ancient
3. PickKaleido take Inferno
4. PickTHUNDER dOWNUNDER take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct5:13
Kaleido 47%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 53%
The model gave 53% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Ancientprediction missed16:13
Kaleido 43%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 57%
The model gave 57% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Infernoprediction correct12:16
Kaleido 40%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 60%
The model gave 60% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Model check result
Model favoriteTHUNDER dOWNUNDER · 68%
Series resultTHUNDER dOWNUNDER 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3