Hero Esports Asian Champions League 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kaleido#154 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#128 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Kaleido ban
25%50%
Kaleido · 4 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +25%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 4 maps
AnubisTHUNDER dOWNUNDER pick
50%73%
Kaleido · 0 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +23%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 7 maps
Infernopossible decider
43%67%
Kaleido · 3 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +24%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 2 maps
AncientKaleido pick
50%60%
Kaleido · 2 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +10%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 map
MirageTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
71%50%
Kaleido · 3 mapsedge Kaleido +21%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 maps
NukeKaleido ban
50%71%
Kaleido · 0 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +21%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 3 maps
OverpassTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
60%40%
Kaleido · 1 mapedge Kaleido +20%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKaleido remove Nuke
2. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Mirage
3. PickKaleido take Ancient
4. PickTHUNDER dOWNUNDER take Anubis
5. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Overpass
6. BanKaleido remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (43% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct5:13
Kaleido 25%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 75%
The model gave 75% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Ancientprediction missed16:13
Kaleido 43%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 57%
The model gave 57% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Infernoprediction correct12:16
Kaleido 27%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 73%
The model gave 73% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Model check result
Model favoriteTHUNDER dOWNUNDER · 60%
Series resultTHUNDER dOWNUNDER 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3