Parken Challenger Championship Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
MASONIC#187 in the world · win 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Honvéd#144 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
50%67%
MASONIC · 4 mapsedge Honvéd +17%Honvéd · 2 maps
AncientMASONIC pick
50%50%
MASONIC · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Honvéd · 0 maps
InfernoHonvéd pick
43%50%
MASONIC · 3 mapsedge Honvéd +7%Honvéd · 0 maps
MirageMASONIC ban
50%43%
MASONIC · 0 mapsedge MASONIC +7%Honvéd · 3 maps
NukeHonvéd ban
57%50%
MASONIC · 3 mapsedge MASONIC +7%Honvéd · 0 maps
AnubisHonvéd ban
60%60%
MASONIC · 1 mapnearly even +0%Honvéd · 1 map
OverpassMASONIC ban
40%40%
MASONIC · 1 mapnearly even +0%Honvéd · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMASONIC remove Mirage
2. BanHonvéd remove Nuke
3. PickMASONIC take Ancient
4. PickHonvéd take Inferno
5. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
6. BanMASONIC remove Overpass
DeciderDust2 (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
MASONIC 31%Honvéd 69%
The model gave 69% on Honvéd — the map was taken by MASONIC.
Overpassprediction correct13:10
MASONIC 53%Honvéd 47%
The model gave 53% on MASONIC — the map was taken by MASONIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteMASONIC · 53%
Series resultMASONIC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2