Parken Challenger Championship Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
MASONIC#219 in the world · win 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Honvéd#124 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2MASONIC ban
50%67%
MASONIC · 2 mapsedge Honvéd +17%Honvéd · 2 maps
MirageMASONIC ban
50%43%
MASONIC · 0 mapsedge MASONIC +7%Honvéd · 3 maps
AnubisMASONIC pick
60%60%
MASONIC · 1 mapnearly even +0%Honvéd · 1 map
NukeHonvéd ban
67%50%
MASONIC · 2 mapsedge MASONIC +17%Honvéd · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
40%50%
MASONIC · 1 mapedge Honvéd +10%Honvéd · 0 maps
DefaultHonvéd pick
40%50%
MASONIC · 1 mapedge Honvéd +10%Honvéd · 0 maps
InfernoHonvéd ban
40%50%
MASONIC · 1 mapedge Honvéd +10%Honvéd · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMASONIC remove Mirage
2. BanHonvéd remove Nuke
3. PickMASONIC take Anubis
4. PickHonvéd take Default
5. BanHonvéd remove Inferno
6. BanMASONIC remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
MASONIC 31%Honvéd 69%
The model gave 69% on Honvéd — the map was taken by MASONIC.
Overpassprediction correct13:10
MASONIC 53%Honvéd 47%
The model gave 53% on MASONIC — the map was taken by MASONIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteMASONIC · 53%
Series resultMASONIC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2