NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
UPGRADE#64 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
40%59%
UPGRADE · 1 mapedge Black Phoenix +19%Black Phoenix · 25 maps
MirageBlack Phoenix ban
50%45%
UPGRADE · 0 mapsedge UPGRADE +5%Black Phoenix · 16 maps
Nukepossible decider
40%50%
UPGRADE · 1 mapedge Black Phoenix +10%Black Phoenix · 12 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
60%15%
UPGRADE · 1 mapedge UPGRADE +45%Black Phoenix · 9 maps
CacheUPGRADE ban
50%62%
UPGRADE · 0 mapsedge Black Phoenix +12%Black Phoenix · 9 maps
InfernoUPGRADE ban
50%62%
UPGRADE · 0 mapsedge Black Phoenix +12%Black Phoenix · 9 maps
DefaultUPGRADE pick
60%50%
UPGRADE · 1 mapedge UPGRADE +10%Black Phoenix · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUPGRADE remove Inferno
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
3. PickUPGRADE take Default
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Mirage
6. BanUPGRADE remove Cache
DeciderNuke (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct11:13
UPGRADE 36%Black Phoenix 64%
The model gave 64% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Anubisprediction correct13:4
UPGRADE 90%Black Phoenix 10%
The model gave 90% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
UPGRADE 40%Black Phoenix 60%
The model gave 60% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 57%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3