Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction0021loss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
goonswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
021
No games played over 6 months.
goons
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
755 picks · 481 bans
Tiny
535 picks · 389 bans
Tusk
535 picks · 445 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 582 bans
Nature's Prophet
410 picks · 603 bans
Snapfire
388 picks · 269 bans
Death Prophet
377 picks · 639 bans
Ember Spirit
353 picks · 755 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% 021
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% goons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:21
021 38%goons 62%
The model gave 62% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 40:34.
Game 2prediction correct17:33
021 42%goons 58%
The model gave 58% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 30:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonArk
PangolierBoris
SnapfireSteelborco
Nyx AssassinAfrOmoush
Model check result
Model favoritegoons · 62%
Series resultgoons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2