Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction0021loss 0:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:1
WWojtekwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
021
Abaddonoften banned
Ark · 2 games
Snapfire
Steelborco · 2 games
Hoodwink
Steelborco · 1 game
Sniperoften banned
Ark · 1 game
Wojtek
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
772 picks · 505 bans
Tiny
547 picks · 386 bans
Tusk
541 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 582 bans
Nature's Prophet
413 picks · 644 bans
Snapfire
396 picks · 284 bans
Death Prophet
384 picks · 703 bans
Ember Spirit
359 picks · 784 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% 021
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Wojtek
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
021 40%Wojtek 60%
The model gave 60% on Wojtek — the game was taken by Wojtek.
Model check result
Model favoriteWojtek · 60%
Series resultWojtek 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1