DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction1R1000 reasonswin 1:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TNTeam Nakamura04loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1000 reasons
No games played over 6 months.
Team Nakamura04
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
559 picks · 663 bans
Tusk
505 picks · 332 bans
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 662 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 528 bans
Snapfire
435 picks · 152 bans
Hoodwink
413 picks · 197 bans
Mars
380 picks · 515 bans
Gyrocopter
367 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% 1000 reasons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team Nakamura04
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
1000 reasons 48%Team Nakamura04 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Nakamura04 — the game was taken by 1000 reasons.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nakamura04 · 52%
Series result1000 reasons 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1