Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
11Monkeyzloss 1:2series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:2
EU Rejectswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
EU Rejects
Viperoften banned
j4 · 5 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Shad · 4 games
Clockwerk
TANNER · 4 games
Marcioften banned
TANNER · 4 games
Visageoften banned
Chessie · 4 games
Hoodwink
TANNER · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
TANNER · 3 games
Tiny
Adzantick · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
564 picks · 465 bans
Mars
436 picks · 673 bans
Dragon Knight
411 picks · 533 bans
Bane
392 picks · 265 bans
Puck
380 picks · 847 bans
Pangolier
339 picks · 562 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 640 bans
Snapfire
328 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 13%
Hero pool strength56% 11Monkeyz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% 11Monkeyz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:9
11Monkeyz 76%EU Rejects 24%
The model gave 76% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by EU Rejects in 32:16.
Game 2prediction missed21:10
11Monkeyz 76%EU Rejects 24%
The model gave 76% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by EU Rejects in 29:18.
Game 3prediction missed26:33
11Monkeyz 76%EU Rejects 24%
The model gave 76% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by EU Rejects in 40:39.
Model check result
Model favorite11Monkeyz · 76%
Series resultEU Rejects 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3