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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
11Monkeyzwin 2:1
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hydraloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

11Monkeyz

No games played over 6 months.

Hydra

Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 26 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Muka · 20 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kami · 19 games
47%
Bane
Banesignature
Muka · 18 games
61%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Askold · 18 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 16 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Zayac · 16 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 435 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
468 picks · 694 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
434 picks · 292 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
434 picks · 535 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 601 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
373 picks · 595 bans
55%
Sand King
Sand King
345 picks · 506 bans
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
336 picks · 766 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:19
11Monkeyz 23%Hydra 77%
The model gave 77% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 35:14.
Game 2prediction correct15:38
11Monkeyz 23%Hydra 77%
The model gave 77% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 32:17.
Game 3prediction correct33:17
11Monkeyz 23%Hydra 77%
The model gave 77% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 36:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 77%
Series result11Monkeyz 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3