The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1stPlaceEnjloss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
V1dar Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1stPlaceEnj
No games played over 6 months.
V1dar Gaming
Dark Willow
Groom · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
dizzying · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Groom · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Groom · 1 game
Gyrocopter
dizzying · 1 game
Luna
dizzying · 1 game
Pudgeoften banned
dizzying · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
451 picks · 705 bans
Centaur Warrunner
435 picks · 616 bans
Gyrocopter
428 picks · 396 bans
Batrider
411 picks · 756 bans
Rubick
388 picks · 161 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 749 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1044 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% 1stPlaceEnj
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% 1stPlaceEnj
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:47
1stPlaceEnj 58%V1dar Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on 1stPlaceEnj — the game was taken by V1dar Gaming in 20:36.
Game 2prediction missed32:12
1stPlaceEnj 58%V1dar Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on 1stPlaceEnj — the game was taken by V1dar Gaming in 15:30.
Model check result
Model favorite1stPlaceEnj · 58%
Series resultV1dar Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2