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CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
4Piratesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 22 games
68%
Tusk
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 18 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 16 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SSS · 14 games
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SSS · 14 games
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 14 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 14 games
36%

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 34 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 32 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 26 games
65%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
74%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 19 games
79%
Axe
Axesignature
мистер мораль · 17 games
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
582 picks · 589 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
373 picks · 419 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
371 picks · 372 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
366 picks · 217 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 508 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
334 picks · 704 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
326 picks · 839 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
312 picks · 636 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 65%
Hero pool strength50% 4Pirates
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total64% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:18
1w Team 58%4Pirates 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 36:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightMunkushi~
45% · 43 games56% · 173 games
Nature's ProphetOtaker
Nature's Prophet
Leshrac
LeshracSquad1x
44% · 116 games50% · 199 games
Dawnbreakerмистер мораль
Dawnbreaker
Abaddon
AbaddonSSS
42% · 156 games56% · 289 games
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Ember Spirit
Tiny
Tinyswedenstrong
49% · 528 games52% · 273 games
Tuskariel
Tusk
Pugna
Pugnakasane
51% · 194 games57% · 103 games
Ancient ApparitionPERDAN4IK
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed19:24
1w Team 57%4Pirates 43%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 35:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanSSS
54% · 56 games53% · 53 games
UnderlordOtaker
Underlord
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSquad1x
52% · 156 games46% · 126 games
Queen of PainNattyNarwhal
Queen of Pain
Slark
SlarkMunkushi~
53% · 49 games50% · 95 games
Tidehunterмистер мораль
Tidehunter
Disruptor
Disruptorswedenstrong
43% · 65 games49% · 62 games
BanePERDAN4IK
Bane
Dazzle
Dazzlekasane
55% · 46 games46% · 36 games
Snapfireariel
Snapfire
Game 3prediction correct41:27
1w Team 58%4Pirates 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 51:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMunkushi~
52% · 199 games51% · 216 games
DawnbreakerOtaker
Dawnbreaker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSquad1x
51% · 186 games46% · 77 games
LeshracNattyNarwhal
Leshrac
Kunkka
KunkkaSSS
50% · 121 game41% · 170 games
Primal Beastмистер мораль
Primal Beast
Pugna
Pugnaswedenstrong
53% · 146 games43% · 49 games
DazzlePERDAN4IK
Dazzle
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magikasane
53% · 93 games57% · 233 games
Shadow Shamanariel
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 64%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3