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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:2
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:2
9Pandaswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 24 games
46%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
68%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 16 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 16 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 16 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Cloud · 14 games
43%

9Pandas

Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 26 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Solo · 21 game
57%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 21 game
62%
Lion
Lion
lupsione · 20 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 19 games
37%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 15 games
47%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 15 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
jesv · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
528 picks · 721 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
489 picks · 569 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
485 picks · 609 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
480 picks · 409 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
473 picks · 572 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
444 picks · 799 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
440 picks · 976 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 230 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% 9Pandas
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total80% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:25
1w Team 68%9Pandas 32%
The model gave 68% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 29:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackMunkushi~
52% · 313 games46% · 221 game
Dragon KnightV-Tune
Dragon Knight
Invoker
InvokerChira JUNIOR
53% · 252 games55% · 155 games
Earth SpiritSerenada
Earth Spirit
Marci
MarciCloud
47% · 220 games46% · 187 games
Primal Beastlaise
Primal Beast
Io
Ioswedenstrong
58% · 104 games52% · 222 games
Shadow Demonlupsione
Shadow Demon
Disruptor
DisruptorFishman
50% · 166 games43% · 270 games
PhoenixSolo
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct31:14
1w Team 66%9Pandas 34%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 33:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMunkushi~
55% · 243 games42% · 111 games
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
Phantom Assassin
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCloud
54% · 125 games53% · 234 games
Monkey KingSerenada
Monkey King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
43% · 141 game47% · 70 games
Tidehunterlaise
Tidehunter
Clockwerk
Clockwerkswedenstrong
57% · 281 game42% · 50 games
Bounty Hunterlupsione
Bounty Hunter
Warlock
WarlockFishman
45% · 38 games51% · 363 games
PhoenixSolo
Phoenix
Game 3prediction missed21:38
1w Team 66%9Pandas 34%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 47:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinMunkushi~
38% · 131 game50% · 396 games
Dragon KnightV-Tune
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierChira JUNIOR
48% · 419 games49% · 165 games
LinaSerenada
Lina
Magnus
MagnusCloud
53% · 237 games52% · 97 games
Tidehunterlaise
Tidehunter
Clockwerk
Clockwerkswedenstrong
54% · 438 games52% · 400 games
PhoenixSolo
Phoenix
Elder Titan
Elder TitanFishman
58% · 143 games45% · 310 games
Tusklupsione
Tusk
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 80%
Series result9Pandas 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3