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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 33 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 32 games
53%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 32 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
45%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 29 games
59%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 26 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 25 games
52%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 25 games
72%

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 21 game
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 20 games
45%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 16 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Ekki · 14 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Corrupted · 14 games
71%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Wein · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
608 picks · 945 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
534 picks · 433 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
481 picks · 635 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
465 picks · 616 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
438 picks · 963 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
400 picks · 245 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 666 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
398 picks · 538 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 39%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total56% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:26
1w Team 56%AVULUS 44%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 49:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerssnovv1
62% · 124 games53% · 78 games
LargoCorrupted
Largo
Leshrac
LeshracSquad1x
50% · 135 games46% · 309 games
Queen of Paindualrazee
Queen of Pain
Mars
Marsмистер мораль
46% · 262 games48% · 156 games
Phantom AssassinTA2000
Phantom Assassin
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
54% · 192 games44% · 509 games
Warlockasdekor_r
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroRein
50% · 519 games51% · 180 games
Skywrath MageWein
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct30:15
1w Team 56%AVULUS 44%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 27:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonssnovv1
52% · 206 games41% · 217 games
Void Spiritdualrazee
Void Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSquad1x
56% · 338 games41% · 304 games
WindrangerTA2000
Windranger
Slardar
Slardarмистер мораль
52% · 212 games51% · 350 games
TidehunterCorrupted
Tidehunter
Jakiro
JakiroRein
50% · 536 games53% · 270 games
Chenasdekor_r
Chen
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
53% · 180 games50% · 331 game
Shadow ShamanWein
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 56%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2