PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 1:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Blue Submarineloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 22 games
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 15 games
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 14 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
swedenstrong · 14 games
Blue Submarine
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
472 picks · 602 bans
Muerta
461 picks · 397 bans
Batrider
453 picks · 563 bans
Clockwerk
430 picks · 541 bans
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 780 bans
Tiny
414 picks · 483 bans
Magnus
403 picks · 895 bans
Lion
396 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:23
1w Team 85%Blue Submarine 15%
The model gave 85% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 40:43.
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 85%
Series result1w Team 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1