The Portal Dota 2 World Invitationals · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dandelionsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 26 games
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 24 games
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 19 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 19 games
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 18 games
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 17 games
Dandelions
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
462 picks · 736 bans
Mars
430 picks · 691 bans
Techies
426 picks · 340 bans
Tiny
416 picks · 544 bans
Lion
412 picks · 357 bans
Batrider
411 picks · 892 bans
Crystal Maiden
392 picks · 176 bans
Rubick
386 picks · 187 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:5
1w Team 75%Dandelions 25%
The model gave 75% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 30:12.
Game 2prediction correct32:14
1w Team 75%Dandelions 25%
The model gave 75% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 33:56.
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 75%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2