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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HULIGANIloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 24 games
71%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 23 games
61%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 22 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
RESPECT · 21 game
57%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
59%

HULIGANI

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 26 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 20 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 19 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Panto · 18 games
61%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
v1olent- · 17 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
OneJey · 16 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mirage · 15 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
Panto · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
467 picks · 383 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
425 picks · 547 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
387 picks · 489 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
377 picks · 609 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
377 picks · 201 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
366 picks · 415 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
359 picks · 584 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
342 picks · 867 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total66% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:28
1w Team 58%HULIGANI 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 52:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMunkushi~
40% · 257 games56% · 136 games
Naga Sirenv1olent-
Naga Siren
Earthshaker
EarthshakerChira JUNIOR
48% · 77 games48% · 350 games
TinyMirage
Tiny
Doom
DoomCloud
51% · 246 games52% · 117 games
Dark SeerAlberkaaa
Dark Seer
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFishman
49% · 368 games51% · 278 games
PhoenixRESPECT
Phoenix
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanswedenstrong
50% · 48 games57% · 115 games
Nyx Assassinqueezy
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed31:29
1w Team 59%HULIGANI 41%
The model gave 59% on 1w Team — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 41:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomCloud
49% · 281 game49% · 123 games
BroodmotherAlberkaaa
Broodmother
Pangolier
PangolierChira JUNIOR
48% · 335 games57% · 193 games
MagnusMirage
Magnus
Monkey King
Monkey KingMunkushi~
55% · 183 games42% · 233 games
Razorv1olent-
Razor
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterswedenstrong
51% · 297 games46% · 210 games
Muertaqueezy
Muerta
Disruptor
DisruptorFishman
54% · 80 games49% · 417 games
ClockwerkRESPECT
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct40:16
1w Team 60%HULIGANI 40%
The model gave 60% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 40:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackMunkushi~
57% · 189 games51% · 162 games
Shadow Fiendv1olent-
Shadow Fiend
Doom
DoomCloud
48% · 259 games49% · 206 games
MagnusMirage
Magnus
Tiny
TinyChira JUNIOR
51% · 323 games49% · 104 games
BroodmotherAlberkaaa
Broodmother
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterswedenstrong
51% · 276 games46% · 248 games
Muertaqueezy
Muerta
Disruptor
DisruptorFishman
49% · 71 game47% · 398 games
ClockwerkRESPECT
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 66%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3