BLAST Slam V. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HULIGANIloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 27 games
Warlocksignature
kasane · 23 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 19 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 16 games
Dawnbreakersignature
SSS · 15 games
Svensignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
HULIGANI
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
Doomoften banned
v1olent- · 19 games
Snapfire
slimeyao · 19 games
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 18 games
Puckoften banned
erase · 18 games
Warlock
RESPECT · 18 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
495 picks · 256 bans
Disruptor
470 picks · 463 bans
Puck
358 picks · 969 bans
Pugna
326 picks · 372 bans
Warlock
300 picks · 147 bans
Earthshaker
293 picks · 487 bans
Mars
293 picks · 497 bans
Batrider
291 picks · 618 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% 1w Team
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total82% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:17
1w Team 82%HULIGANI 18%
The model gave 82% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 44:38.
Game 2prediction missed18:28
1w Team 71%HULIGANI 29%
The model gave 71% on 1w Team — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 59:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinMunkushi~
Terrorbladechempik
LeshracSquad1x
Dragon Knighterase
BristlebackSSS
MarsBb3px
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
SnapfireRESPECT
Pugnakasane
Slarkslimeyao
Game 3prediction correct33:21
1w Team 70%HULIGANI 30%
The model gave 70% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 57:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckSquad1x
Gyrocopterchempik
WindrangerMunkushi~
Sand Kingerase
BeastmasterSSS
MarciBb3px
Tinyswedenstrong
Shadow Demonslimeyao
Banekasane
RingmasterRESPECT
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 82%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3