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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 23 games
74%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 23 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
RESPECT · 21 game
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 20 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 18 games
67%
Weaver
Weaver
swedenstrong · 17 games
59%

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 19 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Zayac · 14 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 14 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 13 games
46%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Zayac · 13 games
38%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 13 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 11 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
399 picks · 509 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
388 picks · 308 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
363 picks · 382 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 561 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
331 picks · 403 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
331 picks · 159 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
324 picks · 745 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
307 picks · 431 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total65% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:37
1w Team 58%Natus Vincere 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 36:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperChira JUNIOR
50% · 116 games50% · 313 games
GyrocopterShad
Gyrocopter
Doom
DoomCloud
51% · 222 games40% · 149 games
LinaSancity
Lina
Monkey King
Monkey KingMunkushi~
52% · 157 games56% · 177 games
MagnusBOOM
Magnus
Batrider
Batriderswedenstrong
48% · 371 game57% · 89 games
Ogre MagiKaori
Ogre Magi
Disruptor
DisruptorFishman
54% · 96 games45% · 234 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed31:28
1w Team 59%Natus Vincere 41%
The model gave 59% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 47:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMunkushi~
48% · 278 games44% · 133 games
MedusaShad
Medusa
Brewmaster
BrewmasterCloud
52% · 130 games48% · 98 games
LinaSancity
Lina
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritChira JUNIOR
54% · 149 games43% · 201 game
Primal BeastBOOM
Primal Beast
Dark Willow
Dark Willowswedenstrong
50% · 232 games52% · 305 games
Shadow DemonQBFY
Shadow Demon
Io
IoFishman
61% · 47 games54% · 99 games
Ogre MagiKaori
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 65%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2