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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 41 game
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 30 games
63%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 26 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 24 games
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 21 game
57%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 21 game
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
55%

Nemiga Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 15 games
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 15 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 15 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 14 games
43%
Luna
Lunasignature
v1olent- · 12 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
nicky`cool · 12 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
queezy · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
476 picks · 222 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
432 picks · 667 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
413 picks · 595 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
412 picks · 380 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
410 picks · 735 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
373 picks · 160 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
339 picks · 959 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:4
1w Team 58%Nemiga Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 15:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMunkushi~
45% · 25 games47% · 73 games
Dragon KnightLukas
Dragon Knight
Axe
AxeCloud
48% · 35 games56% · 80 games
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Keeper of the Light
Invoker
InvokerChira JUNIOR
49% · 79 games45% · 109 games
TimbersawMikSa`
Timbersaw
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonswedenstrong
47% · 234 games52% · 110 games
Pugnaqueezy
Pugna
Marci
MarciRESPECT
57% · 60 games53% · 61 game
Tuskaik
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct36:31
1w Team 55%Nemiga Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 44:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyMunkushi~
46% · 192 games56% · 43 games
UrsaLukas
Ursa
Windranger
WindrangerChira JUNIOR
49% · 102 games59% · 80 games
Slardarnicky`cool
Slardar
Sand King
Sand KingCloud
29% · 3 games48% · 199 games
Primal BeastMikSa`
Primal Beast
Io
IoRESPECT
45% · 77 games51% · 108 games
Grimstrokequeezy
Grimstroke
Clockwerk
Clockwerkswedenstrong
47% · 138 games54% · 82 games
Baneaik
Bane
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 66%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2