DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 22 games
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 18 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
Warlocksignature
kasane · 17 games
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 14 games
Pugnasignature
kasane · 14 games
Shadow Shamansignature
swedenstrong · 14 games
Nemiga Gaming
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 23 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 18 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 16 games
Marssignature
Covisnine · 15 games
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 14 games
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
bashka · 13 games
Windranger
xsvampire · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
302 picks · 754 bans
Disruptor
293 picks · 269 bans
Shadow Shaman
271 picks · 173 bans
Pugna
262 picks · 287 bans
Dawnbreaker
259 picks · 707 bans
Tusk
255 picks · 244 bans
Marci
253 picks · 713 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 590 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:15
1w Team 62%Nemiga Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 38:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
Templar Assassinbashka
Shadow FiendSquad1x
Leshracyoung G
MarsSSS
SlardarCovisnine
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Snapfirexsvampire
Warlockkasane
Game 2prediction correct
1w Team 77%Nemiga Gaming 23%
The model gave 77% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team.
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 77%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2