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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Night Pulseloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 18 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 18 games
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
RESPECT · 17 games
59%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 17 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
80%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
RESPECT · 13 games
69%

Night Pulse

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
JANTER · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Askold · 1 game
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 1 game
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
JANTER · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
382 picks · 352 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
340 picks · 336 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
324 picks · 529 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
319 picks · 478 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
307 picks · 241 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
298 picks · 176 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
296 picks · 567 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
283 picks · 253 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)18% vs 44%
Hero pool strength57% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:27
1w Team 48%Night Pulse 52%
The model gave 52% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by 1w Team in 54:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenMunkushi~
48% · 122 games43% · 198 games
Death ProphetCorrupted
Death Prophet
Doom
DoomCloud
51% · 260 games57% · 192 games
SlarkKami
Slark
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
53% · 145 games54% · 360 games
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Rubick
Rubickswedenstrong
46% · 473 games52% · 387 games
TechiesJANTER
Techies
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
45% · 137 games
Game 2prediction missed
1w Team 46%Night Pulse 54%
The model gave 54% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by 1w Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 54%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2