?
arrow_backBack to match
BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 29 games
66%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 23 games
61%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 21 game
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
68%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 18 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
kasane · 16 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 16 games
56%

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 25 games
48%
Tiny
Tiny
Stormstormer · 22 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 21 game
48%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 20 games
40%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 19 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 18 games
44%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 17 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Daze · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
522 picks · 268 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
482 picks · 486 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
366 picks · 998 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
327 picks · 377 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
305 picks · 517 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
303 picks · 495 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
303 picks · 147 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
299 picks · 147 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% 1w Team
Head-to-head7 – 1
Model total62% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:11
1w Team 58%OG 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 56:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMunkushi~
48% · 190 games48% · 263 games
Templar AssassinShad
Templar Assassin
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSSS
46% · 147 games47% · 85 games
SniperStojkov
Sniper
Puck
PuckSquad1x
55% · 183 games51% · 199 games
Centaur WarrunnerMikSa`
Centaur Warrunner
Snapfire
Snapfireswedenstrong
55% · 136 games59% · 33 games
TechiesDaze
Techies
Elder Titan
Elder Titankasane
53% · 77 games45% · 153 games
Undyingn0tail
Undying
Game 2prediction correct38:28
1w Team 55%OG 45%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 41:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawSSS
50% · 156 games55% · 362 games
BeastmasterMikSa`
Beastmaster
Kez
KezMunkushi~
little data53% · 50 games
Faceless VoidShad
Faceless Void
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSquad1x
41% · 221 game50% · 367 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Warlock
Warlockkasane
51% · 229 games52% · 94 games
Nyx AssassinDaze
Nyx Assassin
Tiny
Tinyswedenstrong
47% · 465 games54% · 198 games
Pugnan0tail
Pugna
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 62%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2