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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 22 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
47%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 16 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 15 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 14 games
50%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 28 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 20 games
55%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 20 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 17 games
24%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 17 games
47%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 16 games
69%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 15 games
20%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
WoE · 15 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
489 picks · 632 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
469 picks · 404 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
460 picks · 584 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
450 picks · 553 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
434 picks · 503 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
421 picks · 789 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
411 picks · 918 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 234 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% 1w Team
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total74% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:21
1w Team 62%One Move 38%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 38:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinMunkushi~
42% · 115 games55% · 299 games
MorphlingWoE
Morphling
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
51% · 355 games57% · 82 games
LycanSSS
Lycan
Pangolier
PangolierChira JUNIOR
49% · 493 games51% · 375 games
TinyDifference
Tiny
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterswedenstrong
53% · 68 games38% · 86 games
ZeusRein
Zeus
Lich
LichFishman
47% · 202 games56% · 391 game
Clockwerknot me
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct38:29
1w Team 62%One Move 38%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 49:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerMunkushi~
55% · 145 games47% · 140 games
MedusaWoE
Medusa
Pangolier
PangolierChira JUNIOR
49% · 436 games57% · 95 games
LycanSSS
Lycan
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCloud
46% · 162 games52% · 250 games
Ember SpiritDifference
Ember Spirit
Batrider
Batriderswedenstrong
45% · 374 games50% · 395 games
PhoenixRein
Phoenix
Lich
LichFishman
48% · 192 games52% · 429 games
Clockwerknot me
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 74%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2