?
arrow_backBack to match
CCT Season 2 Series 8 · BO5
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:3
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:3
paiN Gamingwin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 37 games
54%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 34 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 32 games
72%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
41%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 29 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Rein · 26 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 25 games
52%

paiN Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Scofield · 6 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
DarkMago · 6 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Scofield · 6 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 5 games
40%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Frank · 5 games
40%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Elmisho · 4 games
25%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Wits · 4 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
622 picks · 812 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
549 picks · 570 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
448 picks · 397 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
442 picks · 296 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
396 picks · 1042 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
385 picks · 676 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
378 picks · 592 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
359 picks · 513 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:28
1w Team 62%paiN Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by paiN Gaming in 46:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
ViperSquad1x
52% · 94 games47% · 171 game
Queen of PainDarkMago
Queen of Pain
Weaver
Weaverv1olent-
50% · 159 games48% · 55 games
LunaWits
Luna
Dark Seer
Dark Seerмистер мораль
50% · 156 games52% · 186 games
TidehunterFrank
Tidehunter
Warlock
WarlockRein
47% · 464 games53% · 352 games
TuskScofield
Tusk
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerswedenstrong
47% · 94 games53% · 203 games
BatriderElmisho
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed19:31
1w Team 63%paiN Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on 1w Team — the game was taken by paiN Gaming in 42:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertav1olent-
55% · 169 games40% · 73 games
LunaWits
Luna
Huskar
HuskarSquad1x
56% · 103 games40% · 282 games
Queen of PainDarkMago
Queen of Pain
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerмистер мораль
57% · 326 games53% · 95 games
LargoFrank
Largo
Marci
Marciswedenstrong
53% · 157 games49% · 668 games
JakiroElmisho
Jakiro
Warlock
WarlockRein
50% · 443 games48% · 80 games
Nyx AssassinScofield
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction missed8:28
1w Team 62%paiN Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by paiN Gaming in 31:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonv1olent-
58% · 219 games49% · 64 games
LunaWits
Luna
Puck
PuckSquad1x
55% · 280 games44% · 215 games
KunkkaDarkMago
Kunkka
Bristleback
Bristlebackмистер мораль
49% · 176 games47% · 261 game
AxeFrank
Axe
Tiny
Tinyswedenstrong
46% · 411 games50% · 506 games
WarlockElmisho
Warlock
Dazzle
DazzleRein
53% · 124 games50% · 164 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 69%
Series resultpaiN Gaming 0:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3