DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Peru Rejectsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 31 game
Warlock
kasane · 26 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 24 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 23 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 22 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
Disruptoroften banned
kasane · 18 games
Svensignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
Peru Rejects
Snapfiresignature
Michael · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
Frank · 6 games
Bristlebackoften banned
payk · 6 games
Earthshakeroften banned
DarkMago · 6 games
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 6 games
Marcisignature
Elmisho · 6 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 6 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Elmisho · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
594 picks · 296 bans
Disruptor
518 picks · 522 bans
Puck
389 picks · 1070 bans
Hoodwink
352 picks · 183 bans
Pugna
344 picks · 391 bans
Mars
343 picks · 586 bans
Warlock
343 picks · 156 bans
Tusk
334 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:31
1w Team 55%Peru Rejects 45%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 54:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
Ursapayk
Queen of PainSquad1x
AbaddonILICH-
DoomSSS
MarsDarkMago
Pugnakasane
JakiroMichael
Ringmasterswedenstrong
DisruptorMatthew
Game 2prediction correct31:19
1w Team 56%Peru Rejects 44%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 37:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautMunkushi~
MarsDarkMago
Queen of PainSquad1x
Bristlebackpayk
MarciSSS
AxeILICH-
Snapfireswedenstrong
WarlockMichael
Silencerkasane
LionMatthew
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 59%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2