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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 35 games
49%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 25 games
48%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Rein · 21 game
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
мистер мораль · 19 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 19 games
42%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Whitemon · 19 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 19 games
47%
Kez
Kezsignature
Pure~ · 18 games
72%

Hokori

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Asao · 10 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Lumière · 5 games
40%
Windranger
Windranger
Lumière · 5 games
40%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
25%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Vitaly · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Gardick · 4 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Genek · 4 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
472 picks · 288 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
333 picks · 136 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
330 picks · 144 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 457 bans
58%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 430 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
287 picks · 295 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
269 picks · 202 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
269 picks · 236 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:29
1w Team 79%Hokori 21%
The model gave 79% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 45:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbzm
52% · 324 games46% · 199 games
Nature's Prophetpayk
Nature's Prophet
Luna
LunaShad
48% · 142 games53% · 336 games
BeastmasterVitaly
Beastmaster
Largo
Largo33
53% · 244 games48% · 424 games
PuckWonderk1d
Puck
Techies
TechiesWhitemon
47% · 145 games49% · 289 games
Dark WillowAsao
Dark Willow
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
53% · 704 games51% · 311 games
ClockwerkGardick
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct42:21
1w Team 78%Hokori 22%
The model gave 78% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 42:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosShad
56% · 76 games51% · 86 games
Lone Druidpayk
Lone Druid
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbzm
50% · 132 games50% · 215 games
TimbersawWonderk1d
Timbersaw
Largo
Largo33
57% · 157 games42% · 388 games
PangolierVitaly
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
50% · 506 games51% · 195 games
TechiesAsao
Techies
Mirana
MiranaWhitemon
48% · 103 games46% · 90 games
Witch DoctorGardick
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 93%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2