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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PlayTimeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 34 games
59%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 33 games
39%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 31 game
48%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 26 games
46%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Rein · 23 games
57%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 22 games
59%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
мистер мораль · 22 games
41%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 21 game
81%

PlayTime

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 15 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 10 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 8 games
63%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Wits · 7 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Gabbi · 7 games
86%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Wits · 7 games
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Elmisho · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
510 picks · 297 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
478 picks · 574 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
438 picks · 352 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
431 picks · 333 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
374 picks · 322 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
349 picks · 187 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
347 picks · 842 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
346 picks · 846 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% PlayTime
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% PlayTime
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:24
1w Team 48%PlayTime 52%
The model gave 52% on PlayTime — the game was taken by 1w Team in 1:13:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezv1olent-
48% · 112 games43% · 255 games
PangolierDarkMago
Pangolier
Slardar
SlardarSquad1x
53% · 257 games53% · 129 games
Shadow FiendWits
Shadow Fiend
Underlord
Underlordмистер мораль
46% · 163 games57% · 104 games
LargoFrank
Largo
Rubick
Rubickswedenstrong
53% · 144 games47% · 70 games
TechiesElmisho
Techies
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernRein
43% · 25 games54% · 143 games
SnapfireScofield
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed25:27
1w Team 48%PlayTime 52%
The model gave 52% on PlayTime — the game was taken by 1w Team in 58:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladev1olent-
45% · 311 games48% · 375 games
PangolierDarkMago
Pangolier
Timbersaw
Timbersawмистер мораль
53% · 229 games58% · 75 games
KezWits
Kez
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSquad1x
44% · 350 games53% · 332 games
SlardarFrank
Slardar
Rubick
Rubickswedenstrong
50% · 212 games49% · 188 games
EnchantressElmisho
Enchantress
Venomancer
VenomancerRein
48% · 97 games54% · 229 games
Shadow DemonScofield
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoritePlayTime · 55%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2